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How much will it take to end the war?

Blu-ray Disc Writers, BD Combo and BD-ROM Drives

Postby dolphinius_rex on Wed May 16, 2007 2:43 am

vinnie97 wrote:So it would seem there are usually warning signs with flash drives as well fortunately (though not always). :P *knocking on wood for his flash drives*

PS. In the case of the college kids USB' devices failing, you have to wonder how well the little buggers were treated. If not treated with care, any media will see failure sooner or later.


Ugh... just had a Verbatim 4GB Store n Go Pro die on me. No warning.

Luckily I don't keep anything important on my flash drives, EVER. But still, that was a pretty high end Flash drive in my collection. I think I only have 1 more of those now :(

I might send it in to get it replaced though. Limited Lifetime warranties are nice. And for the record, it works about a year after it went through my washing machine (so I don't think it's related).
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Re: How much will it take to end the war?

Postby CowboySlim on Sun May 20, 2007 8:24 pm

dolphinius_rex wrote:It's a simple question really.

How much of an advantage does a format need, and for how long, before people and the supporting companies just get over themselves and bring this format war to an end?

I just realized that the question is a false question.

The real question is: Will either format ever be successful?

Looking at the false question, the current answer is Blu-Ray.
But at what cost?
It has the lead due to the PS3 tie-in and it can be used for Blu-Ray discs.
But Sony is losing an incredible amount of money on each sale at the current PS3 production rate.
Even if they eventually get to a break even point on the PS3 units, will there ever be a sufficiently substantial presence in the living room to make the format viable?

IMHO, not until Blu-ray players are less than $100, Blu-ray burners are less than $50 and the blank discs are less than $0.50 per.

Not all new and seemingly better inovations are successful in the marketplace.
Blu-Ray will win out over HD DVD as VHS won out over Betamax.
But then both will join Digital Audio Tape in the Digital Graveyard.
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Postby Ian on Sun May 20, 2007 10:34 pm

It's going to get even more interesting once HD VMD enters the market. That is if they can get support from a few of the major hollywood studios and/or one of the larger retail chains.
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Re: How much will it take to end the war?

Postby dolphinius_rex on Mon May 21, 2007 3:39 am

CowboySlim wrote:
dolphinius_rex wrote:It's a simple question really.

How much of an advantage does a format need, and for how long, before people and the supporting companies just get over themselves and bring this format war to an end?

I just realized that the question is a false question.

The real question is: Will either format ever be successful?

Looking at the false question, the current answer is Blu-Ray.
But at what cost?
It has the lead due to the PS3 tie-in and it can be used for Blu-Ray discs.
But Sony is losing an incredible amount of money on each sale at the current PS3 production rate.
Even if they eventually get to a break even point on the PS3 units, will there ever be a sufficiently substantial presence in the living room to make the format viable?

IMHO, not until Blu-ray players are less than $100, Blu-ray burners are less than $50 and the blank discs are less than $0.50 per.

Not all new and seemingly better inovations are successful in the marketplace.
Blu-Ray will win out over HD DVD as VHS won out over Betamax.
But then both will join Digital Audio Tape in the Digital Graveyard.


You bring up some good points. Except that BD-Rs are unikely to ever seen the $0.50 price range. DVD+RDL is have a very hard time with the $1.00/disc price range even, and the quality control needed on BD-Rs is even higher. The amount of manufacturers who can handle DVD+RDL is very small right now, and BD-R is even smaller.

As for <$100 Blu-Ray players, I'd say we're probably 2 years away from it. Next year we'll see ~$200 players most likely, this year we'll deffinately see <$400 Blu-Ray players, maybe even <$300.
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Postby dolphinius_rex on Mon May 21, 2007 3:46 am

Ian wrote:It's going to get even more interesting once HD VMD enters the market. That is if they can get support from a few of the major hollywood studios and/or one of the larger retail chains.


As we've seen with HD DVD, all HD VMD needs to do is get *ONE* major movie studio and they can force themselves onto consumers...

Hopefully this won't happen.
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Postby CowboySlim on Mon May 21, 2007 11:37 am

I want movies in full HD, 1080p, and 3D.
I just found some old glasses with one red and one blue cellophane lens. :P
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Re: How much will it take to end the war?

Postby Wesociety on Mon May 21, 2007 1:13 pm

dolphinius_rex wrote:Except that BD-Rs are unikely to ever seen the $0.50 price range.

I read somewhere that Sony DADC said they expect Blu-ray Disc production will eventually fall to the same price level as DVD production. But they were referring to BD-ROM pressed discs, not BD-R...
Last edited by Wesociety on Tue May 22, 2007 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Grain on Tue May 22, 2007 1:16 pm

If the big box stores would calibrate their displays better (or at all) that could help the situation. At the very least it would help them sell players for either format. I've seen more HD demos for both format's where the picture was only negligably better than SD DVD, and to a layman I'm sure it looked no better, than ones that showcased it's better picture. Certainly some new HD releases aren't that good, in particular Bluray had some dud releases, ex The Fifth Element was hardly better than SD, (rumor has it they are releasing yet another version of it). Tricks like that and HD-DVD's dual format disc's not working well aren't helping either side. Saw a demo for The Chronicles of Riddick on the weekend on a Sharp plasma, that one was jaw dropping, and what a good store would have running on a loop.
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