SNL Kagan released a new study this week, forecasting the revenue growth in the retail home video business over the next decade. According to their study, Blu-ray player sales are expected to grow from $255.4 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion in 2010. SNL Kagan also projects that high-definition DVD will attain 73.8% market share by 2017. However, it will face some stiff competition from video-on-demand (VOD) services, which will improve in both technology and content over the next decade.
While the current impact of Blu-ray has been relatively minor (standard DVD still comprises 97.1% of the market), SNL Kagan projects that high-definition DVD will attain 59.7% market share in 2014, with $13.1 billion in revenue. By 2017, this figure is expected to soar to 73.8%, or $15.6 billion.
The SNL Kagan study points to 2010 as the start of the resurgence in retail revenue. Sales of Blu-ray players are expected to grow from $255.4 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion in 2010, reaching mass-market penetration and spiking to nearly $6.9 billion in 2013.
However, Blu-ray's unrivaled dominance may be short-lived, with video-on-demand (VOD) poised to become a major force in home entertainment after 2017. SNL Kagan estimates that there will be 98.8 million high-speed Internet homes capable of delivering VOD in 2017 compared to 115.2 million high-definition DVD homes.