I came across an interesting article over at Engadget this morning. According to the author, Microsoft wants both HD DVD and Blu-ray to fail in order that digitally distributed video can succeed.
"Simple. Microsoft really has nothing to gain from either format winning. Just listen to any of Gates' recent interviews and how he talks about discs as a necessary evil until the world is ready for media-free distribution. That said, Microsoft has much to gain from both formats losing. Think back to the format war between DVD-Audio and SACD. Both formats lost and it was a computer company that stepped in to become the new center of the digital music universe.
"Microsoft was a bit late to the game for that one, but it's making a big investment into securing Windows Vista for Hollywood as well as ensuring that Portable Media Centers work with DirecTV set-tops. Microsoft gets to sell DRM software and Windows Mobile licenses so that consumers can take this stuff on the go. All of that is a lot less likely if the content is trapped in a 5-inch round jail, regardless of which camp is the warden.
While an interesting theory, I don't buy it. One thing the author is forgetting is that Microsoft is the developer of iHD. If HD DVD became the dominant format, the company could potentially make a small fortune thanks to royalty payments. In any case, if you'd like to read more, the entire article can be found here.