Well, let's see...
Pansonic, Imation, TDK, Sony, and Verbatim are all doing their own media in their own plants... so those should be mostly pretty good. I'm thinking the really troublesome media will come when we get second tier manufacturers like Ritek, CMC, Prodisc, and Optodisc involved.
Alternatively, if Taiyo Yuden decides to actually make any HD or BD media, then we may seen really crappy media then. But last I heard they hadn't even begun any serious R&D on either format. (I'm baseing this opinion on the craptacular results of their 16x media, and the uselessness of their DVD-RDL media).
Punch Cards -> Paper Tape -> Tape Drive -> 8" Floppy Diskette -> 5 1/4" Floppy Diskette -> 3 1/2" "Flippy" Diskette -> CD-R -> DVD±R -> BD-R
The Progression of Computer Media