I think it's fair to say that if this trend continues, the war could very well be over at CES 2008.
That's fair but Blu-Ray would be dead in the water without the PS3...and the PS3 is looking to be dead in the water without games (the only AAA title forthcoming in the near future being Lair due in June, I believe). Finally, there's that monkey-wrench of forthcoming cheap HD DVD hardware of which you are also well aware.
DVD will be king for some time yet...and online distribution might have finally make inroads by the time HDTV penetration hits 50%.
Yeah, Blu-Ray might have been in real trouble without the PS3... but that's not the issue, because there *IS* the PS3
And as the lack of games... well I won't disagree in the slightest. However it was also the most successful console launch in Europe to date, outperforming even the Wii.
As for the forthcoming cheap HD DVD players. There are no known or comfirmed pricing details, no guarentees that they will support even the mandatory requirements for HD DVD (there are some missing logo's on the empty demo shell shown at CeBit), and we also don't have a launch date for them at all.
In comparison, the HD DVD-R burners from Toshiba were shown at CES 2006 with a launch date of August 2006, and then re-announced at CES 2007 with a launch date of February 2007. We still haven't seen these drives anywhere in the world (PC Drives). So based on HD DVD's trackrecord, I'm not holding my breath.
And even if these drives make it to market, we *ARE* talking about the same manufacturers who put out those crap-de-la-crap DVD players sold at Bestbuy and Walmart, that always pile up at the return desk for being DOA or ultra glitchy.
I have to say though, that if these players ever do show up in our market, and they are relatively glitch free (nothing too major), then I'll have to SERIOUSLY reconsider my opinions of both Santa Clause and the Easter Bunny... both of which I would put more money on right now.
Punch Cards -> Paper Tape -> Tape Drive -> 8" Floppy Diskette -> 5 1/4" Floppy Diskette -> 3 1/2" "Flippy" Diskette -> CD-R -> DVD±R -> BD-R
The Progression of Computer Media