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Dual-Layer Standard May Disappear Soon...??

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Dual-Layer Standard May Disappear Soon...??

Postby Ian on Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:16 pm

That's the way it looks.. at least according to CoolTechZone.

http://cooltechzone.com/index.php?optio ... 8&Itemid=0

Dual-Layered (DL) DVD writers may be affordable, but the question of concern is the media prices. The price per DL media averages out to $10.00, which is shockingly high. We talked to manufacturers at this year’s CES about prices and what they thought about DL media in general. The replies we received were far from positive and disappointing. According to a few blank media providers, DL standard may not have a bright future ahead of it. The reason is the upcoming Blu-Ray and HD DVD standards that are supported by world’s top most corporations.


Again, this seems to be one persons interpretation of the DL formats... and not based on facts. Like many, they seem to be wowed by the slew of PR coming from the Blu-ray and HD DVD camps. Little do they realize, it will be years before either format replaces the DVD.

It also sounds like a lot of media companies were talking smack about Verbatim. In particular, the high prices they're charging for their DL media. :roll:
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Postby dolphinius_rex on Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:28 pm

Actually, I'm inclined to agree with Mr. cooltechzone..... a lot of companies are seeing VERY low volume sales on dual layer media, and R&D costs have not been recouped. I know at least one manufacturer that HAD been planning on bringing out dual layer media, but is now reconsidering due to extremely low sales volume of the media across the world.
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Postby vinnie97 on Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:36 pm

The exorbitant price difference between -/+R and dual layer doesn't justify the increase in storage (2X). I was still looking forward to the increased capacity if/when the prices plummet.

Blu ray won't be available to us lowly consumers 'til the end of the year, and then there's the prospect to which Ian alluded (market penetration).
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Postby Ian on Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:42 pm

vinnie97 wrote:Blu ray won't be available to us lowly consumers 'til the end of the year, and then there's the prospect to which Ian alluded (market penetration).


Available? Yes. Affordable? No. I've seen some predictions by industry experts that it won't gain full momentum until the end of the decade. Due not only to price, but the lack of HiDef material (movies, games and what not). A little early to write off current DVD technologies? IMO, yes.
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Postby dolphinius_rex on Mon Jan 17, 2005 6:58 pm

What I expect will happen is we'll see 16x media become nice and strong in the market... and now that Ritek, CMC, and Prodisc have stopped dropping their prices every other day (this was more of a Prodisc thing actually... Ritek didn't do that), we should see some market stability as well.
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Postby vinnie97 on Mon Jan 17, 2005 7:17 pm

Good call, I'm sure the initial burners will go for ~$500 at the least. :lol:
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Postby Ian on Mon Jan 17, 2005 7:22 pm

vinnie97 wrote:Good call, I'm sure the initial burners will go for ~$500 at the least. :lol:


I'm expecting the players to go for at least that. Burners?? Go sell a kidney.
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Postby vinnie97 on Mon Jan 17, 2005 8:02 pm

Wishful thinking on my part! I remember when I purchased a Yamaha 4x4x16 CD burner for over $200+ in '98...The capacity/R&D recoup is what'll escalate the price on these to astronomical levels ($1,000? ;))
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Postby supraman215 on Tue Jan 18, 2005 12:13 am

I remember when CD writer drives were well over $600 each, and the media was over $10 a disc. Seeing as how every DVD player ever made can read DL media and none can read Blu-Ray I predict that DLR media will come down in price, and become the medium of choice. However it may only come down to like $2 a disc.

Remember the better media technology (Blu Ray) may not always win out. For example Beta was a far superior technology and picture to VHS both were comperably priced but VHS won out. DVD has a HUGE following and everyone already owns player. The printed media is also super cheap, compared to what VHS movies used to cost. It's going to take more then awesome technology to get people to start switching to Blu Ray, even if there are readers and writers that work with both formats.

Just my theory on it all.

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Postby RJW on Tue Jan 18, 2005 5:37 am

I allready reacted at cdfreaks on the posting.
But let me say that this person should do better research.
Just let me post what I posted allready on cdfreaks webpage.

I (at cdfreaks news posting) wrote:Hmm I would say to the writer of the articles do some more research and then rewrite it.
Since a lot of stuff is incorrect or incomplete.
Let me give 4 examples.

A Benq 1620 retail drive can be bought for 64 euro not the double of it.
B He don't understand to know anything about manufactureing of the disc's and just takes things for granted from the wrong sources.
C Current prices are falling. He hasn't seen that ritek manufactured disc's are allready selling for something arround 5 euro's a piece.
D He isn't aware of the fact that the competition is still busy with actually getting there products on the market.

I'm not saying that dual layer will become really cheap soon. Still a price of 3 euro's should be possible at the end of the year.

However I allready see some sites picking up this lame story. With enough bad publicity he actually might make it right in the end because of people and companies no longer haveing fate in it. Ohwell.


About some manufacturers backing out on dual layer. Some comments here.
1 These manufacturers are allways behind when it comes to technology support. So infact skipping this format might make it actually possible to be on time with the next stuff. :lol:
2 Well they were allready 3/4 months behind there main competitors so they allready had lost this round. (again ?)
3 Dual Layer requires quite some high quality manufactureing with not to big quality variations. QUestion is are these manufacturers up to it. While some of them are others are not !!
4 Some compannies prefer to buy a of the shelf sollution when it comes to manufactureing a complete of the shelf production line for dual layer is just there.(it might still not be 100% completed. I would have to check)

Since I still see new dual layer media hitting the stores and at lower prices I still believe that the format has a life.

Also if you think Dual Layer manufactureing prices are bad then don't think about Blue Ray. At this time makeing Blue Ray disc's are a even more dificult task. Guess some folks will probally waite befor the complete production sollutions are there.

About verbatim
Biggest thing here is the unprofesional handeling of people being jealous.
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Postby hoxlund on Tue Jan 18, 2005 1:14 pm

reason i didn't buy DL media is the price, good god the media is expensive

its almost cheaper sometimes to just go out and buy the retail movie
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Postby jjones on Tue Jan 18, 2005 5:22 pm

vinnie97 wrote:Wishful thinking on my part! I remember when I purchased a Yamaha 4x4x16 CD burner for over $200+ in '98...The capacity/R&D recoup is what'll escalate the price on these to astronomical levels ($1,000? ;))


I remember those days of the $200+ CD burners in the late 90's. I also remember the days of $200+ CD-ROM drives circa-1994.
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Postby kingofheck on Tue Jan 18, 2005 6:26 pm

hoxlund wrote:reason i didn't buy DL media is the price, good god the media is expensive

its almost cheaper sometimes to just go out and buy the retail movie


I wonder if this is part of a conspiracy involving the movie industry... :-k
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Postby Telstar on Tue Jan 18, 2005 6:46 pm

I don't believe there is any conspiracy involved, it's as simple as that the yield is still relatively low for DL media manufacturers. I think that DL discs will remain a niche product until the yield is improved significantly. DVD, not BD or HD-DVD, will remain the dominant recording format for at least the next few years, and hopefully there will be enough incentives for manufacturers to improve the yield, especially with DVD-R DL media also in the competition.
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Postby hoxlund on Wed Jan 19, 2005 1:06 am

DVD-R DL baby, im countin the days
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