no more dvd-r in the future?

[jtan]

amidst the rising popularity of DVD+R, i wonder if it's still worthwhile to use DVD-R to backup your data, or are they going to disappear in the future and players will no longer support them?

[CDRecorder]

I would guess that future players will continue to support reading both formats, but I certainly don't know everything.

[Kennyshin]

Advanced Optical Disc and Blu-ray Disc are rising. They will begin to replace both DVD-RW and DVD+RW in the near future for the "early adopters" in the optical storage consumer market. They are already the best candidates for HDTV-quality PC storage to replace VHS and D-VHS to integrate the consumer electronics video recording and PC storage.

DVD+RW has replaced DVD-RW, DVD-RAM, and CD-RW for some percentage of people very much into video recording and PC data storage in the recent 20 months. At least until 2005, DVD-R and DVD-RW will continue to exist in the mass market since there have been enough user base and production lines for both drives and media to justify it. That's why I myself have two DVD-R writers but only one DVD+R writer though I have strongly supported DVD+RW standard since 2001. Major industry players like Mitsubishi, Hitachi, Sony, Samsung, LG, Lite-On, Ritek, Microsoft, Intel, and many others support both DVD-RW and DVD+RW. Companies like Samsung and LG cannot withdraw support for DVD-RW and DVD-RAM in any foreseeable future though they know it is also very important to supply a massive quantity of Plus-only drives to HP, Dell, IBM, and other OEM buyers because of long and complicated business relationships, loyalties, etc. That is why LG and Hitachi jointly created a format that supports ALL formats from CD-R to DVD+RW through the release of GMA-4040B.

Future players and drives will continue to play and read both DVD-R and DVD+R until some greater change like the advent of 650MB CD when 1.44MB floppy was the dominant PC storage technology. I mean, TB-size media will probably force us to give up backward compatibility with CD and DVD.

[Noua]

My guess is that dvd-r won’t disappear. Here in Portugal, DVD-R is what stands up. I’m not saying that it’s best but the fact is that it’s what most sells. While dvd +r also sells but not by any means the same has – r, I’ve been told that nowadays dvd-r media just disappear from the stores shelves…. My guess is that both formats will stand and we’ll see more and more multiple drives on the market. Not to forget that 8x burners are coming out…
What I do think it’s goanna happen is that the blue laser technology will indeed invade the market and will be the standard format, at least until a new technology emerge… Of course will have to consider that it will be a while until burners and media (not speaking in price) will reach the regular consumer market…

[tazdevl]

Advanced Optical Disc and Blu-ray Disc are rising. They will begin to replace both DVD-RW and DVD+RW in the near future for the "early adopters" in the optical storage consumer market. They are already the best candidates for HDTV-quality PC storage to replace VHS and D-VHS to integrate the consumer electronics video recording and PC storage.

W're talking early, early adopters Ken. The price isn't going to hit an acceptable price level for the enthusiast early adopter segment for another 9-12 months.

I'm sure -R while be around for a while given the fact that Pioneer and several other companies support it. Last time I checked, they had a fair amount of influence in the industry.

We're hitting a point where there are too many formats and DVD is coming close to hitting an acceptable price point for the average user. I don't think anything will displace it for quite some time i.e. Blu-Ray and AOD.

[Ian]

W're talking early, early adopters Ken. The price isn't going to hit an acceptable price level for the enthusiast early adopter segment for another 9-12 months.

I'm betting more like 2-3 years. Blu-Ray is still in its infancy and while AOD is coming along, there still aren't any retail products. I think that many people are forget how long it too for DVD-R and DVD-RAM to become affordable.

[tazdevl]

W're talking early, early adopters Ken. The price isn't going to hit an acceptable price level for the enthusiast early adopter segment for another 9-12 months.

I'm betting more like 2-3 years. Blu-Ray is still in its infancy and while AOD is coming along, there still aren't any retail products. I think that many people are forget how long it too for DVD-R and DVD-RAM to become affordable.

I think well see Blu Ray hit $1.8-$2K in the next 12 months. If so, the price is no object... early, early adopters will proably hop on the bandwagon.

I've always segmented early adopters into several categories when developing products. Although in essence, it's a small segment when you look at the tech adoption curve, there are several subpopulations that exhibit very different behaviors.

[Kennyshin]

W're talking early, early adopters Ken. The price isn't going to hit an acceptable price level for the enthusiast early adopter segment for another 9-12 months.

Maybe I was not clear enough. I meant people like myself who move and travel just to try the newest technologies available. The "acceptable price level" you meant might be US$50 to US$500 but I'm willing to spend at least US$100,000 in that near future on these things. A 4x DVD writer costs US$100 to US$200 per unit in 2003. An AOD drive costing US$2000 per unit sounds attractive enough to me. A Sony retail brand Blu-ray Disc media of 23GB costs US$25 per disc.

People who have spent US$5000 or more on HDTV and D-VHS are those early adopters I meant. They have already waited far too long for the disc-type HD recordable products that are mass available.

This forum is mainly for CD-R users. It's for economy rather than spending US$1K or US$10K just to try Hyper-Threading, Serial ATA, Centrino, etc.

I didn't think HD-DVD would replace DVD before 2005 or 2006 until recently but I now think differently after noticing the recent strategic changes in LG, Samsung, NEC, Toshiba, Sony, etc.

FTTH and HDTV both have become ubiquitous at least here in South Korea just like PSTN-modems and notebook computers 10 years ago.

[Kennyshin]

W're talking early, early adopters Ken. The price isn't going to hit an acceptable price level for the enthusiast early adopter segment for another 9-12 months.

I'm betting more like 2-3 years. Blu-Ray is still in its infancy and while AOD is coming along, there still aren't any retail products. I think that many people are forget how long it too for DVD-R and DVD-RAM to become affordable.

I think well see Blu Ray hit $1.8-$2K in the next 12 months. If so, the price is no object... early, early adopters will proably hop on the bandwagon.

I've always segmented early adopters into several categories when developing products. Although in essence, it's a small segment when you look at the tech adoption curve, there are several subpopulations that exhibit very different behaviors.

I predict US$1K to US$2K in the next 6 months and US$500 to US$1K by June 2004. It may not be Blu-ray but AOD though. Even the first standalone consumer electronics Sony Blu-ray recorder was released at less than US$3,000 per unit. It's amazingly cheap compared to the first DVD recorders from Pioneer only several years ago. AOD is much cheaper to produce and PC drives generally cost much less than standalone CE products. The early high prices of Blu-ray and D-VHS recorders were due to extremely low yield rate and seemingly lack of user demand.

[jtan]

Advanced Optical Disc and Blu-ray Disc are rising. They will begin to replace both DVD-RW and DVD+RW in the near future for the "early adopters" in the optical storage consumer market. They are already the best candidates for HDTV-quality PC storage to replace VHS and D-VHS to integrate the consumer electronics video recording and PC storage.

DVD+RW has replaced DVD-RW, DVD-RAM, and CD-RW for some percentage of people very much into video recording and PC data storage in the recent 20 months. At least until 2005, DVD-R and DVD-RW will continue to exist in the mass market since there have been enough user base and production lines for both drives and media to justify it. That's why I myself have two DVD-R writers but only one DVD+R writer though I have strongly supported DVD+RW standard since 2001. Major industry players like Mitsubishi, Hitachi, Sony, Samsung, LG, Lite-On, Ritek, Microsoft, Intel, and many others support both DVD-RW and DVD+RW. Companies like Samsung and LG cannot withdraw support for DVD-RW and DVD-RAM in any foreseeable future though they know it is also very important to supply a massive quantity of Plus-only drives to HP, Dell, IBM, and other OEM buyers because of long and complicated business relationships, loyalties, etc. That is why LG and Hitachi jointly created a format that supports ALL formats from CD-R to DVD+RW through the release of GMA-4040B.

Future players and drives will continue to play and read both DVD-R and DVD+R until some greater change like the advent of 650MB CD when 1.44MB floppy was the dominant PC storage technology. I mean, TB-size media will probably force us to give up backward compatibility with CD and DVD.

that's a lot, 3 DVD writers! what do you use them for? do you work in DVD business?

[Kennyshin]

that's a lot, 3 DVD writers! what do you use them for? do you work in DVD business?

I knew someone at DVDPlusRW.org had three DVD recorders/writers even one year ago. He bought each for more than US$500. I paid about US$500 for the three writers plus Samsung SM-352B (52x CD-R/16x DVD-ROM combo.) Yes, my work has something to do with this business but the things I buy and sell are mostly out of my personal interest.

BTW, I now have: NEC ND-1100A (IO DATA OEM), Pioneer DVR-A05 (retail Japan), Toshiba SD-R5002 (Melcoinc Buffalo OEM) all bought in Tokyo. I have tried to get some Sony DRU-500/510 drives either internal or external since Nov. last year. I had DRU-500A (more than US$350) for a few weeks but sold it to a friend in Seoul for about US$290. I'll wait for DRU-510A external USB2/1394 to sell for under US$200. It can't be too long.

[jase]

I can't see either format disappearing. In the US, +R seems to be taking over from -R in a lot of cases (I understand +R has become cheaper than -R sometimes). The +RW format does have advantages over -RW (the differences between +R and -R are fairly small by comparison) although I'd argue that -RAM is better than the pair of them in terms of features. However in Europe, -R is like a steamroller. -R discs are outselling +R by dozens to one according to my contacts. The Taiwanese are flooding the market with cheap -R media and the market is lapping them up.

If any formats do "disappear", I can see it being +R and -RW (we already do see a new Sony standalone which supports +/-RW but only -R). -RAM has too much of a specialist following to die completely. But licences being what they are, these two formats will continue if only because they're easy to implement if you already have -R and +RW on-board.

[tazdevl]

W're talking early, early adopters Ken. The price isn't going to hit an acceptable price level for the enthusiast early adopter segment for another 9-12 months.

Maybe I was not clear enough. I meant people like myself who move and travel just to try the newest technologies available. The "acceptable price level" you meant might be US$50 to US$500 but I'm willing to spend at least US$100,000 in that near future on these things. A 4x DVD writer costs US$100 to US$200 per unit in 2003. An AOD drive costing US$2000 per unit sounds attractive enough to me. A Sony retail brand Blu-ray Disc media of 23GB costs US$25 per disc.

People who have spent US$5000 or more on HDTV and D-VHS are those early adopters I meant. They have already waited far too long for the disc-type HD recordable products that are mass available.

As I said, the early, early adopter segment.

I don't think we'll see Blu Ray as cheap as you mentioned in that time frame. LOL sorry Ken, but after your sub $200 LiteOn DVD drive theory, I'm betting you aren't on the product/marketing side of the business.

Most folks' tend to tighten up their discretionary spending when there are global recessions going on. Process technologies improve, but you have to get to a point where the returns warrant higher levels of production, regardless of yield. The demand has to be there. I think a great market for Blu Ray is the same segment WD was going after with the Raptor.

[Kennyshin]

I don't think we'll see Blu Ray as cheap as you mentioned in that time frame. LOL sorry Ken, but after your sub $200 LiteOn DVD drive theory, I'm betting you aren't on the product/marketing side of the business.

Who was it that theorized about $200 Lite-on DVD drive? Weren't it the Lite-On lovers that just want everything for the lowest possible price?

And since it's a very small business, I do marketing myself.

[Kennyshin]

The people who took it for granted that it would be again Lite-On to continue to provide the cheapest DVD writers with the most features were wrong. They were all wrong. Instead, it was NEC, Pioneer, Hitachi of Japan that first provided under-US$100 4x DVD writer drives to OEM makers. I always said Lite-On would be one of the last to enter the DVD writer market, after Sony, after Hitachi, after LG, after Samsung, that is. It has been the same with CD-ROM, DVD-ROM, CD-R/CD-RW, CD-R/DVD-ROM combo drives since the mid-1990s.

Lite-On DVD writers are over US$200 but better drives cost US$150 per unit.

Recessions or not, Blu-ray and similar technologies will begin to replace both CD/DVD and VHS/D-VHS in the near future while the 36GB 10K RPM Serial ATA I Raptor will never mass-replace 160-250GB 7.2K RPM Serial ATA I drives and 36-73GB 15K RPM SCSI 320 drives.

[jase]

Blu-Ray may well take off in the US/Japanese sector, because of HDTV. But it'll be years before anyone bothers in Europe. Reason? Because Europe was the first continent to take to MPEG2 digital TV, and widescreen, in a big way there is a reluctance, especially as we have the PAL format which is higher resolution than NTSC anyway, to bother with it. Blu-Ray may well become popular in terms of PC storage; but what drives the market is consumer electronics and in this field I just can't see it happening for at least the next five years.

Don't forget that the BBC were at the forefront of HDTV technology in the early 90s yet an HDTV format isn't even being talked about here yet, unlike in the US where it's already a reality.

[Kennyshin]

Don't forget that the BBC were at the forefront of HDTV technology in the early 90s yet an HDTV format isn't even being talked about here yet, unlike in the US where it's already a reality.

The South Korean Ministry of Information and Telecommunication strongly supports HDTV technology whether the central government in Seoul's chief of executive is from the left or the right or pro-US or pro-North. BBC may have almost given it up but since at least the late 1980s, it's been that way in South Korea and Japan. About 90% or more percentage of PC optical storage and TV/video markets are controlled by the Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean makers whether the world's other regions agree with them or not. Thanks to the still-rapidly-growing IT sector despite the recession in Europe and Americas, the demand from both the consumers and the states is strong and the manufacturers are very interested. I could see quite many people in the US have been interested in inexpensive HDTV cards from South Korea. The export price should be around US$100 per unit for the low-end products. Both HDTV and FTTH are for the mass here. The highly profitable and growing South Korean market alone can justify at least for the two electronics and computer giants to continue to develop HDTV, VDSL, FTTH, Blu-ray, AOD, etc.

There are surely more Europeans than Asians here at CDRLabs and other CD/DVD-releated forums but Europe itself is smaller than the US and smaller than Asia both in terms of production and consumption.

[jase]

I do agree with what you are saying, and am convinced that Europe will eventually be dragged into the 21st century on this issue as well (ironically Philips are developing HD equipment yet their home market will be a challenge to say the least). I have had huge arguments with others on British TV/Tech forums about whether HD will ever take off; and I am on the side that will!!! The Euro market is smaller than the US but it is still relevant, and the Japanese, Korean and other manufacturers have a job on their hands.....

[Kennyshin]

I have to add that KBS, MBC, and SBS, the three largest broadcasting companies in South Korea have all been reluctant to upgrade their equipment to HDTV level but it was only between 2002 and 2003 that they finally were forced to do so by the goverment (or MIT) and the consumers.

Some consumer groups online are finding out where the apartment complex (not sure whether this kind of housing style exists outside of South Korea) is ready for digital HDTV. The data will directly go to MIT officials. The central government in Seoul here decides by when all the cities will be ready for HDTV. Most big cities where most of the 20-30 million web surfers reside will be ready by this or next year. The rural areas and smaller cities will be by 1995 to 1997 or so.

It's rather hard to understand for me why people who spend more than 1 million dollars (US) on housing (in Seoul) are not yet watching HDTV. It's no more a luxury item.

HD-VOD is seriously considered as well. There are no under-US$1K HD recorders/writers for the mass yet but there are home Internet lines that are capable of transmitting data at 100Mbps and over at least for those living in the right areas. I have three such lines at home and I need HD-quality video to make the right use out of this. Until Blu-ray and AOD, HD-DVD or HD2WMV9/DivX recorded on HDD and DVD+/-R should do.

[jase]

I have to add that KBS, MBC, and SBS, the three largest broadcasting companies in South Korea have all been reluctant to upgrade their equipment to HDTV level but it was only between 2002 and 2003 that they finally were forced to do so by the goverment (or MIT) and the consumers.

[...]

It's rather hard to understand for me why people who spend more than 1 million dollars (US) on housing (in Seoul) are not yet watching HDTV. It's no more a luxury item.

I agree. But I think you hit the nail on the head; non-techies are not interested in higher quality -- it's higher quantity they're after. It's easy to demonstrate to someone why MPEG2 digital is "better" than analogue (even though in practice the analogue signals, through a good aerial, are often better than the digital due to over-compression etc). It's a lot harder to explain why HDTV is better than SDTV. On an average 25" screen size at normal viewing distance it demonstably isn't.

If there ever was a broadcaster which would want something like HDTV it would be the BBC. They were the first with a regular TV service in the 30s; first to broadcast in digital sound in the 80s; first to experiment with widescreen in the 90s, first to broadcast digital radio etc etc blah blah blah. If they can't convince the Europeans (and don't forget they've managed to make the UK the country with the highest penetration of 16:9 TVs in the world) it's going to take a lot to push people to it. If it's left to consumers and electronics giants rather than broadcasters and governments, we'll always lag behind....

The broadcasters are no better -- they've become lazy. My local independent TV broadcaster (Tyne Tees TV) was the first in mainland UK (third in Europe) to move to electronic newsgathering in the 70s so they used to be no slouches; they're still using Betacam heavily in the broadcast chain. Pathetic.

Sometimes I wished I lived in Japan or Korea lol.