Far too long has cfitz been undisputed No. 2 in total posts, but yon dodecahedron has a lean and hungry look.
Poll: When will dodecahedron pass cfitz in total posts ?
- what is a "dodecahedron"
- who makes a "cfitz"
- cfitz will turn on the afterburners
- who cares ?
The diagram shows some background material based on a limited sample with least square fits of some posting rates. If these rates continue, the "magic moment" will be somewhere around 17 April.
Some further important dates this year projected from the March trends:
- 16 Mar. dodecahedron passes 4000 posts
- 5 May aviationwiz passes eliminator
- 7 April board tops 100 000 posts
- 17 June Ian hits 9000 posts
- 19 June 8000 users
This information is, of course, based on strict scientific principles under due consideration of uncertainties and with proper regard to the gravity of the question.
So much for the parallels with last year. While brooding over this contribution a couple of weeks ago, the world seemed simpler because cfitz had taken a leave of absence. Have a look at this plot, where the current predictions are based on the last 9 days only and the "historical" ones (the thin lines) are for 6 March:
At this rate, dodecahedron is right when he says that he won't pass cfitz- but he seems to be taking a leave of absence now- 4000 by tomorrow is a bit unlikely . The prediction for catching cfitz (prior to cfitz' renaissance) was 3 April; since then cfitz has made more posts.
Another jump in posting rates occured right about then for aviationwiz. This is rumoured to be connected with the Plextor A07 and LiteOn PX-712SA.
CDRecorder reduced his activity drastically after being made a moderator (similar to BhuddaTB last year). What can we learn from this?
Ian, of course, is in a different league. He has close to 10% of all posts. His closest competition is the number of signed up users (!!):
There are more statistical tidbits:
- cfitz is almost twice as likely to post on Sunday than on Saturday
- for BhuddaTB, this factor is 5 !!!
- jase, on the other hand, posts 3x as much on Wed. as on Sun.
- aviationwiz has a mild high on Sat.
- BurninMan921 doesn't like Mon. 3x more posts on Fri.