I have to agree-- I don't see either format succeeding like DVD did. DVD brought MASSIVE, obvious improvements to the table, for pretty much anyone with any kind of TV or sound system-- much better looking picture, much better audio, room for extras, etc...
What these formats bring is... "a little bit better more of the same"... we're gonna have even BETTER looking pictures (... for the 10% of people with TVs that can handle it...)... even BETTER sound (.. for the 10% of people with 18 speakers in their home theatre ...)... do you get my drift?
I'm not saying in the long term people won't move to them-- you can almost see the studio execs drooling thinking this will solve a> piracy, b> piracy and c> world hunger once these new formats happen. They'll prematurely kill off DVD because of the new copy protection in these new formats.
But I just can't see a huge rush of people going to upgrade their TVs and sound systems-- how many people have even semi-decent home theatres NOW? Do you think the people who have waited this long have just been for a newer format? I kinda think the people who want this already have it, and the ones who don't never will, don't care, and just buy whatever format's at Walmart or available from the library or something. (and there's nothing wrong with that!)
I see one or both of the formats becoming fairly popular/useful for PC data storage, but I think the only BluRay player that's gonna take off is the PS3 (and it might just trojan-horse its way into a successful Sony format launch..!). But even then will people spend $25+ for a BluRay copy of a movie they can get on DVD (and will look almost exactly the same on their 2 year old sorta-HDTV with no HDMI/HDCP/whatever plug, and NO different on their 15 year old living room TV) for $15?