Kagan Research has released the 11th edition of their market analysis report, "The State of Home Video". According to their study, high-definition DVD's will not dominate the market until 2012.
In 2006, the bulk of the $16.9 bil. revenue will come from standard-definition DVD ($16.8 bil.)," said Wade Holden, Kagan analyst. "By 2009, VHS will be virtually extinct and high-definition DVD revenue should grow to more than $2.6 bil. as the format war works itself out, either via one winning format or a combination HD DVD/Blu-ray player being introduced to the market. By 2015, VHS will be history and high-definition DVD will be the major-market shareholder with $18.3 bil. in revenue.
I have to agree with this study. Contrary to what Blu-ray and HD DVD promoters want you to think, the DVD is not going away any time soon. More information on Kagan's report can be found here.